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  2. About the Chairman

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  3. About the Chairman

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  4. Exhausting Glacial Lakes of HKH before they explode
    By Muhammad Raza KhanChairman APM PakistanDec 2012
    Many disastrous floods have occurred in the...

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  5. Article By Chairman APM - Badaltay Mosam (The Changed Climate)

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  6. Understanding Global Climate

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  7. World Precipitation Regions

    By Muhammad Raza Khan

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  8. Nature Strikes Back... Wake up call

    Raza Khan
    Chairman APM
    August , 2010

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  9. NAO and The Sunspot Theory

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  10. Climate change led to catastrophe
    Article by Chairman APMRaza Khan
    11 August , 2010

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  11. Before Its Too Late

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  12. Iceland Volcanic Eruption

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    PDF link

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  14. Interview with The Chairman
    Conducted by:Muhammad Waseem AbbasiVia:TeleconferenceDate:28 May 2010Time:3pm (UK); 8pm (PK)

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South Asian Monsoon

India’s climate is dominated by monsoons. Monsoons are strong,often violent winds that change direction with the season. Monsoon winds blow fromcold to warm regions because cold air takes up more space than warm air. Monsoonsblow from the land toward the sea in winter, and from the sea toward land inthe summer.

India’s winters are hot and dry. The monsoon winds blow from thenortheast and carry little moisture. The temperature is high because theHimalayas form a barrier that prevents cold air from passing onto thesubcontinent. Additionally, most of India lies between the Tropic of Cancer andthe equator, so the sun’s rays shine directly on the land. The temperature canreach as high as 110oF during the Indian winter.

The summer monsoons roar onto the subcontinent from thesouthwest. The winds carry moisture from the Indian Ocean and bring heavy rainsfrom June to September. The torrential rainstorms often cause violentlandslides. Entire villages have been swept away during monsoon rains. Despitethe potential for destruction, the summer monsoons are welcomed in India.Farmers depend on the rains to irrigate their land. Additionally, a great dealof India’s electricity is generated by water power provided by the monsoonrains.

Pakistan is much drier than India. The summer monsoon winds inIndia bring moisture from the Indian Ocean; Pakistan is north of the ocean andreceives much less rain. The Thar Desert is on the border between India andPakistan. It covers more than 77,000 square miles, about the size of Nebraska.


Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon byorographic insulation versus plateau heating

The Tibetan plateau, like any landmass, emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of dry heat and water vapour, but its mean surface elevation is more than 5km above sea level. This elevation is widely held to cause the plateau to serve as a heat source that drives the South Asian summer monsoon, potentially coupling uplift of the plateau to climate changes on geologic timescales1–5.

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The Role of Mountains in the South Asian Monsoon Circulation

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East Asian monsoon climate during the Late Pleistocene:

high-resolution sediment records from the South China Sea

Based on the study of 10 sediment cores and 40 core-top samples from the South China Sea (SCS) we obtained proxy records of past changes in East Asian monsoon climate on millennial to bidecadal time scales over the last 220,000 years. Climate proxies such as global sea level, estimates of paleotemperature, salinity, and nutrients in surface water, ventilation of deep water, paleowind strength, freshwater lids, fluvial and=or eolian sediment supply, and sediment winnowing on the sea floor were derived from planktonic and benthic stable-isotope records, the distribution of siliciclastic grain sizes, planktonic foraminifera species, and the UK 37 biomarker index.



Climate change setting new farming patterns

Aug 28, 2013

As evident from longer spells of heavy rains and devastating floods for the fourth consecutive year, Pakistan is experiencing the worst effects of climate change. These include serious threats to agriculture and water resources and, in fact, the country's economic fabric.


Monsoon flash floods inundate ailing economy

Aug 28, 2013

KARACHI – Flash floods caused by the recent monsoon rains and melting of summer ice has reportedly affected 1.4 million lives.

Though the flood was categorised as medium-high level, the momentum is phasing out. As per rough estimates made by National Disaster Management Authority the losses to the agriculture sector is estimated at Rs 200 billion due to damages to 1.05m acres of standing crop. "Historical trend reveals that agricultural loss due to floods makes about 50 percent of total loss to the economy," said Zeeshan Afzal, an analyst at Top line Research. He said the Met Office had predicted above average rains during September which carries a potential to augment losses and worsen the situation.


Pakistan. Floods cause about Rs 200 billion loss to agriculture

Aug 27, 2013

The on-going devastating floods have affected standing crops on 1.05 million acres of land, which as per rough official estimates has caused about Rs 200 billion losses to the agro-economy, making it almost next to impossible for the country to meet the set growth target for the current year, officials said.


Heavy rains, floods affect 1.5 million; 178 killed: NDMA

Aug 26, 2013

ISLAMABAD: Floods and heavy monsoon rains have now killed 178 people and affected 1.5 million across Pakistan in the last three weeks, disaster management officials said on Sunday in updated figures.


Looming threats: Even medium rainfall can unleash floods in Sindh, says PRF report

Aug 19, 2013

Sindh is under threat of the fourth consecutive flood and if the torrential rains continue to hit parts of the province and the water level increases in the Indus River, several areas would be inundated and unprecedented damage could occur – leading the government to declare emergency in upper and lower areas of Sindh.



American HAARP technology is behind the flash flood in Pakistan - Daily UMMAT



Flood Warnings as Heavy rains expected this week: MET Office

Aug 11, 2013

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PAKMET) has issued notification and warning of expected flood's in this week specially from Monday 12th August 2013 to Wednesday 14th August 2013.



More than 150 dead in flash flood in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Aug 5, 2013

Flash floods have left more than 160 people dead and stranded and even more without food or shelter in Pakistan and Afghanistan in one of South Asia's most destructive natural disasters of the year, officials said Monday.



Floods in Balochistan: Road links to Naseerabad & Jhag Magsi Cut

Aug 4, 2013

Several villages in Baluchistan in District Jhal Magsi are facing water and food scarcity after the road links being cutt off from the rest of the province due to the heavy rainfall and Floods.



45 Dead in Pakistan's Monsoon Rains

Aug 4, 2013

Fresh flood warnings issued as more rainfall expected on Monday.

Disaster relief officials in Pakistan issued fresh flood warnings on Sunday after the death toll from heavy monsoon rains rose to 45 and waters paralyzed parts of the country's largest city Karachi.



Heavy Monsoon Rain to Redevelop in Pakistan this Week

Aug 2, 2013

After a light rainfall over the weekend, more heavy rain will affect flood-ravaged Pakistan this week. Flooding is expected to continue to be a problem during the first two weeks of August.



The 2 day Saturday Sunday forecast – monsoon

Jun 28, 2013

For full story click here


In 2009 when India was faced with one of its worst droughts, the monsoon forecast was for an 'almost normal' rainfall season.

You must have heard of the meteorological department's monsoon forecast. It promises to be a near normal monsoon season from June-September with rains expected to be 98 per cent of the long period average with a 5 per cent variation. Sounds good.




Vagaries of the weather

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Indian Ocean is giving threats to the Monsoon!'Indian Ocean is giving threats to the Monsoon!'

Deficient rains over Pakstan?

El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation of Pacific Ocean is not the only thing that is an obstacle in the way of monsoon season but there is a similar phenomenon in the Indian ocean that has an impact on the monsoon seas though it affects less number of countries than the ENSO conidtions. What is it? It is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this year it is the only thing that is giving threats to the upcoming monsoon season especially to Pakistan!


Monsoon Outlook Monday 10, 2013


Pounds of Prevention - Disaster Risk Reduction Story - Focus: South Asian Monsoon Prevention

Monsoons are seasonal shifts of prevailing winds that bring rainfall, typically during the months of June through September in South Asia. Monsoon rains are both a regular and vital part of life and a potential source of catastrophic floods. Variability in their characteristics—such as when monsoon rains start and end, total rainfall amount, and rainfall intensity—may have a dramatic impact on people and their livelihoods. In recent years, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have experienced the effects of flooding, including damage to homes, livelihoods, and crops.


Monsoon: How to avoid a fourth year of serious flooding in Pakistan

Since 2010, monsoon rain in Pakistan has brought with it some of the biggest seasonal flooding in living memory.

Two months from this year's rains, weather forecasters are already predicting above normal rainfall and in some areas standing water has yet to drain away from last year's monsoon.

So, after three years of destruction, how ready is the country for this year's monsoon?


Pakistan bakes in Oven: Bricks for Monsoon 2013 placed!

The sub-continent is experiencing its first major heat wave of the season that is crucial for building up a normal monsoon season. It is worth noting that this year the western sub-continent was a under the grip of below normal temperatures due to the everlasting westerlies till April therefore it was feared that the region would miss out the heat wave but luckily it came on time and western Sub-continent heated up on the right time.


Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (July 3 July 9)

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasted on June 25 monsoon entering the northern parts of the country during the late first week of July. On July 1, PWP told that the chances of monsoon hitting the country are “moderate”, the Portal maintains the chances to “moderate”. Moisture from central India would penetrate into different parts of the country from July 5 as the Upper air cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal would move westwards. UAC in the Arabian sea would also help drag the eastern winds into north-western India



Monsoon Forecast


In 2009 when India was faced with one of its worst droughts, the monsoon forecast was for an 'almost normal' rainfall season.

You must have heard of the meteorological department’s monsoon forecast. It promises to be a near normal monsoon season from June-September with rains expected to be 98 per cent of the long period average with a 5 per cent variation. Sounds good.


Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 25 – July 9)

June 25, 2012

·         Western winds in Punjab!
·         High temperatures coming?
·         Drizzles in Karachi
The country is now entering the annual monsoon season (July) but the northern and few adjoining central parts are under the influence of westerlies that continue to affect the areas. The latest example came from western disturbance ’11′ (Numbered by PWP), it wrecked havoc in northern Afghanistan on June 22 with series of heavy rainfall and flash floods.

Monsoon of Indian subcontinent

A monsoon of the Indian subcontinent is among the severalgeographically distributed observations of the global monsoons. In the subcontinent,it is one of oldest weather observations, an economically important weatherpattern and the most anticipated weather event and unique weather phenomenon.


Advanced Asian summer monsoon onset in recent decades

Advanced monsoon onsets over the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific were evident in recent decades. Increasing rainfall in May along 10°N reflected the advanced monsoon onset.


Advance of Southwest Monssoon 2012


Monsoon Marches Forward Along The West Coast

June 6, 2012

The Southwest Monsoon has advanced another 550 Kms. in one day today after having advanced 650 Kms. yesterday along the West Coast. NML is now on 18N. latitude along the West Coast being just 110 Kms. South of Mumbai. The Northeastern States have also been covered by the Southwest Monsoon. The Monsoon has not yet set in over the Bay of Bengal along the Eastern Indian Coast.

Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days up to 0830 hours IST of 14th June 2012

♦ Rain/thundershowers would continue to occur at many places over west coast, West Bengal & Sikkim, northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over rest peninsular, east, adjoining central and northwest India.

Rainfall may increase over south Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh from 12th.


UPDATE 1-India's crucial monsoon arrives late, starts weak

Jun 7, 2012

(Reuters) - India's monsoon rainfall was 36 percent below average in the week to June 6, the weather office said on Thursday, after the seasonal rains missed their usual arrival date of June 1 in south India.


India monsoon rains 36 pct below average in first week

June 7, 2012

(Reuters) - India's monsoon rains were 36 percent below average in the week to June 6, the weather office said on Thursday, reflecting the delay in the arrival of the seasonal rains over south India from the usual June 1 start date.


Monsoon flow weakens as it comes close to city

Jun 7, 2012

PUNE: The southwest monsoon made further rapid advance along the west coast and some parts of the interiors to almost reach the doorstep of the city on Wednesday. Nevertheless, it may still take three to four days for it to arrive in Pune and Mumbai.


'El Nino' effect on monsoon to be known by third week of June:

Jun 6, 2012

Pune: The effect of 'El Nino' phenomenon, that could negatively impact the monsoon rainfall, would be known only by the third week of June, according to Ashwani Kumar, Union Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Science.


Monsoon Rains Reach Southern India Four Days Behind Schedule

Jun 5, 2012

Monsoon rainfall in India, which accounts for more than 70 percent of annual precipitation, reached the mainland in southern Kerala state today, four days later than normal.

Rains covered all of Kerala and advanced into some parts of southern Karnataka and Tamil Nadu states, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement on its website today. The southern states are the nation’s biggest coffee and rubber producers.


Monsoon likely to be normal this year: Govt

May 15, 2012

New Delhi: India's monsoon is likely to be normal this year, Science and Technology Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said here on Thursday.

'India Meteorological Department's long range forecast for the 2012 southwest monsoon season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal, which is between 96 to 104 percent of the long period average," said Deshmukh.




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