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  2. About the Chairman

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  3. About the Chairman

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  4. Exhausting Glacial Lakes of HKH before they explode
    By Muhammad Raza KhanChairman APM PakistanDec 2012
    Many disastrous floods have occurred in the...

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  5. Article By Chairman APM - Badaltay Mosam (The Changed Climate)

    By Chairman APM

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  6. Understanding Global Climate

    By Muhammad Raza Khan

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  7. World Precipitation Regions

    By Muhammad Raza Khan

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  8. Nature Strikes Back... Wake up call

    Raza Khan
    Chairman APM
    August , 2010

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  9. NAO and The Sunspot Theory

    Mohammad Raza Khan
    Chairman APM - 2010

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  10. Climate change led to catastrophe
    Article by Chairman APMRaza Khan
    11 August , 2010

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  11. Before Its Too Late

    Author: Muhammad Raza Khan (Chairman APM)

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  12. Iceland Volcanic Eruption

    By Muhammad Raza Khan

    Chairman APM...

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    PDF link

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  14. Interview with The Chairman
    Conducted by:Muhammad Waseem AbbasiVia:TeleconferenceDate:28 May 2010Time:3pm (UK); 8pm (PK)

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Interview with The Chairman
Conducted by:Muhammad Waseem Abbasi
Date:28 May 2010
Time:3pm (UK); 8pm (PK)

Amaryllis* generally blooms in March-April but this summer, flowering in my garden in Gujranwala, Pakistan, I saw a couple of flowers on my Amaryllis plant in the morning of May 24 but they were withered as the day proceeded to the noon.

What is deceiving plants bloom?

Amaryllis needs 5 degree Celsius to 25 degree Celsius for its bloom and temperature of 25 degree Celsius is evident during spring from March to mid-April for the northern Punjab, Pakistan. But it is continuously flowering at least in Gujranwala and for the very specific in my lawn even on 28th of May, 2010.

Breaking news is Mangos in Multan are ripen before time. The mango fruit crop matures after 15th of June in every summer in the central Punjab areas and in the interior Sindh.

This made me thinking what is happening to the environment that is simultaneously leading Amaryllis to believe that Spring has not gone and misguiding mango crop that it is hot summer. It all is nothing but a climate change that is knocking at the doors of the Indus Valley and awfully waiting for the prompt response from the authorities to take immediate precautionary measures to face any climate change led catastrophe.

Scorching summers!

Yes scorching summers are raising mercury up to the recorded levels. For instance, it was 51 degree C in Larkana on 25th May, 52 degree C in Nawabshah, on the very next day mercury touches to 53.5 degree C in Mohenjodoro but all is happening in lower Indus plain. For the upper Indus plain the scenario is ambiguous and changed.

Again Gilgit and Skardu are receiving untimely showers that are adding fuel to the fire of Attabad Accidental Lake Incident.

After several hours of thinking and deliberation, I came to understand the reasons for this climate shift. According to my point of view, today’s unexpected climate variations in Pakistan are directly related to the global climate catastrophes that have taken place in near past like Iceland Volcanic Eruption as well.

First and above most, the Iceland Volcanic eruption*is blocking the sun over UK and Europe, which is evident from a relatively moderate summer being observed in these areas. UK has recently seen the coldest month of May in the history. According to the blog of Paul Hudson (weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.), on Thursday May 13th 2010, “Last night was the coldest May night for over 40 years. At the Met Office at Lemming, North Yorkshire, the mercury dipped to -3.5C (26F) making it the coldest since 3rd May 1967 when -3.8C (25F) was recorded - and the second coldest since records began shortly after the end of the 2nd world war in 1945.

It is interesting that the current record was set very early in the month - making the recorded temperature last night all the more remarkable.”

Usually, we expect to see summer in Upper Hemisphere while Spring in Lower Hemisphere, this produces a see-saw effect of seasonal highs and lows air pressures. Naturally, air moves from highs to lows but this seems to be missing as the temperatures are still colder over UK and Europe. Ash from the volcanic eruption has crossed Asia-Minor (Turkey) and is expected to go farther than Iran and Afghanistan to the Pakistani Himalayas.

The North Atlantic Oscillation Index* is positive so cold seen in Europe is not a leakage from north pole, seasonal lows are weaker and therefore, air direction is going in the opposite direction. Usually, Mediterranean air cyclones directs to Pakistan in winter but in the presence of volcanic ash in European atmosphere, land surface temperatures of this summer for these areas are well below the average, therefore, winds are still directed to Pakistan. These cyclones are lesser rich in moisture but are sufficient to lower the land temperature of upper Indus Valley right in the mid of monsoon season. It all is lowering traditional summer mean temperature of Pakistan including northern Punjab as well. It may sustain winter snow up till now and can lead to the major land sliding incidents in Northern Areas.

Another major global climate setting is linearly related to the Southern Oscillation of Pacific Ocean*. Right now neither El Niño* nor does La Niña* exist there.

Hotter north western Pakistan attracts the monsoon gradient setup to rush to the catchment areas of Mangla and Tarbella. But Peshawar is still receiving precipitation and hailstorm before the arrival of Bangali monsoon. Similarly, Gilgit is having unseasonal rains and lower temperatures.

According to;

“PESHAWAR, April 18: Thunderstorm with rain and hailstorm brought pleasant change in the provincial capital on Sunday. Met Office has forecast more rain in the next 24 hours………….and also caused damage to crops. The hailstorm and rain brought down mercury to 23 degrees centigrade.

The same weather episode was again revised in D.I.Khan and Peshawar in 2nd last week of May.

Atta Abad, A Tragedy; A Lesson:

It was September 1997, a receded glacier leveled a motel built by Aga Khan Rural Development support program at Jabba in Mankial, Kohistan, dense forest slopes were cleaned shaved and the history old perinal glacier was washed away in the Mankial Stream. As it was a remote area having a population of a few hundreds so nor the governmental concern was seen neither the Aga Khani's notices this environmental catastrophe. If environmentally speaking, it was only a link to the chain of withdrawal of the velley glaciers of the entire Himalayan, Hindukush and Khoistan ranges.

Year 1999 was somewhat midst of the glacier decline in the Himalayan Range. Now after a decade we have advanced further in this regard. And this receding process is endangering the human existence in these areas.

View the images from onsite sources (Source Pamir Times)
Lets see whether receding ice cover in northern Pakistan is affecting the inhabitants!

Due to Glacier receding* and land erosion at Hunza, a lake formed when landslides blocked a river in January. The landslide at the village of Attabad, about 30km (18 miles) north-east of the town of Aliabad, occurred during snowstorms in January.  Consequently, we have to remain empty the Tarbella reservoir to avoid any damage to the dam because of an apprehended flood from Lake Outburst at Attabad.

Deforestation* and logging has been a common phenomenon of these northern valleys including Hunza. In near future thousands of square kilo-meter fragile slopes would ready to be eroded. Glacier receding its self is aggrandizing the problem of erosion. On the other hand, mother nature is striking back to sustain her ecological balance. The formation of lakes like Attabad Lake has been a natural geographical feature of formation of natural lakes. To combat glacier receding and to sustain the perennial ice cover of Himalayas, mother nature needs a chain of several lakes within these Rockies at such altitude that can give appropriate precipitation  to these valley glaciers.

We need to remember that nature re-habilitates itself. Compensation to the people of Atta Abad should be given on a permanent basis rather than temporary. Lake should be used for power generation if possible, otherwise its purpose of existence definitely helps the declining glaciers to improve themselves. If we can make a chain of small lakes at every possible available point in these Rockies, we can save the source of fresh water of the entire Indus Valley.

There has been a 40-55% glacier receding since the construction of the Dams and the biggest cause of the glacier receding is deforestation for which APM has been raising awareness since 1990.

In monsoon scenario, depleted air to set the moist gradient would be available in the lower plains of Pakistan. It is apprehended that delayed rainy season would hit the southern Punjab and Sindh with its full strength causing damage to the crops while flooding the areas. Monsoon may end-up in India over her mountains or otherwise may come down to southern parts of Pakistan as heat wave persists there. If this happens, it will badly affect summer crops like mangoes and dates as well.
The catchment area of Mangla and Tarbella would get lesser precipitation if the temperature remains below to the average for this season otherwise get ready for flash floods even great inundation.


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